Here’s a question worth sitting with: how much growth are Kenya’s lenders leaving on the table simply because they can’t see the full picture?It’s not a rhetorical exercise. Across our market, 43 per cent of consumers remain thin-file, meaning they don’t carry enough traditional credit information to be confidently assessed. Think about what that means in practice. Nearly 1 in every 2 potential customers walks up to a lender and, through no fault of their own, appears almost invisible. Not because they’re risky or can’t repay, but simply because the data doesn’t tell their story.And it’s far bigger than most of us assume. When lenders cannot see enough of a consumer’s credit story, they risk overlooking creditworthy customers, limiting growth opportunities and slowing financial inclusionWhen people think about data challenges in lending, their minds go straight to credit losses and defaults. That’s understandable, but it’s only a fraction of the story.Ultimately, all of this adds up to slower business growth. In a market as dynamic as Kenya’s, that’s a cost no lender can comfortably carry.Kenya’s credit landscape is evolving at remarkable speed. Digital lending has reshaped how people access credit, particularly younger consumers stepping into the market for the first time. At the same time, lenders are balancing real growth ambitions against portfolio quality, especially after a demanding credit cycle.The pressing question is whether we can grow without compromising portfolio performance. The data suggests we can, but only if we understand today’s borrower better than we understood them yesterday.Consider how visibility shifts across generations. Thin-file rates tell a striking story:Younger Kenyans are becoming steadily more visible in the credit ecosystem. The opportunity lies in leveraging richer credit insights and broader data ecosystems to responsibly extend credit to the remaining 43 per cent.For much of the past year, one question dominated industry conversations: is credit quality finally improving? The evidence points to yes.Kenya’s NPL ratio climbed to a 20-year high of 17.6 per cent during early 2025, before easing to 15.5 per cent by January 2026. Lower interest rates, stronger recoveries and improving economic activity have all played a part, and that improvement signals growing borrower resilience.Still, we shouldn’t relax. At 15.5 per cent, non-performing loans remain elevated against historical norms. The lesson is straightforward: the market is recovering, but early risk detection matters more than ever. The best-performing lenders won’t wait to react to risk. They’ll spot it before it takes hold.If you want to know where future growth will come from, look to new-to-credit consumers. These borrowers represent tomorrow’s customers, tomorrow’s revenue and tomorrow’s portfolio performance.And the face of that future is unmistakably Gen Z and Millennial. These generations account for nearly all new borrowers entering the market today, and they’re entering differently from those before them. Their access point is digital. Their preferred products are short-term and mobile-driven. Their expectations are speed, convenience and flexibility.For lenders, this is genuinely good news. But it also means our risk models must evolve alongside changing behaviour. Yesterday’s borrower isn’t today’s borrower, and today’s borrower certainly won’t be tomorrows.Many lenders instinctively equate frequent borrowing with higher risk. Yet the picture is more nuanced. Gen Z borrowers opened an average of more than 10 loans per month during our observation period, with some accumulating over 70 facilities. At first glance, that sounds alarming. But these borrowers often carry relatively small balances and engage largely through digital products such as mobile loans and Fuliza.The takeaway is powerful. If our understanding of borrower behaviour stays static, we risk misclassifying good customers and missing real growth. The cost of the data gap isn’t only about approving the wrong borrower. It’s about misunderstanding the right one because the available data does not provide a complete view of their behaviour, repayment capacity and credit journey.Credit velocity, how quickly a borrower adds new obligations after their first facility, tells a similar story. Within six months, 50.2 per cent of Gen Z borrowers had opened two or more additional facilities, compared with 33.6 per cent of Millennials. Demand is strong, younger borrowers are highly engaged and risk can shift quickly. Often, the next meaningful signal isn’t the amount borrowed. It’s the pace at which new obligations accumulate.Analysis of consumer-level 30+ days past due (DPD) performance reveals a surprising pattern: delinquency is highest among borrowers early in their credit journey and generally declines as borrowers gain experience managing multiple credit facilities.Conventional thinking says risk rises steadily as borrowers hold more facilities. The data says otherwise:
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