As of September 19, 2026, European governments across NATO’s eastern flank are operating under heightened alert over a potential escalation of Russian hybrid operations. Poland, France, Lithuania, Latvia, and other allies have issued coordinated warnings based on intelligence assessments of possible Russian sabotage, cyberattacks, and false-flag operations targeting critical infrastructure.Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on September 17, 2026, citing unidentified intelligence services, that Russia intends to launch “hybrid” attacks involving drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine. He warned that these potential strikes would have an “accidental” character, designed to paralyze or at least weaken the resolve of NATO states to invoke the alliance’s relevant provisions in case of aggression against a member country.“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction,” Tusk told Poland’s parliament. “The official narration will be that it’s an accident and there is no reason for NATO to think about a response.”Tusk also suggested such attacks could coincide with political changes in European countries, bringing to power — or at least giving a strong voice to — those who, invoking noble slogans about peace and pacifism, would demand Ukraine’s total capitulation.Lithuania stated in early August 2026 that Moscow is considering a staged attack, and Poland, Latvia, and Estonia have also warned of acts of sabotage to test NATO’s response at a time when U.S. commitment to the alliance is in question.Russia’s northern NATO neighbours are tightening security around dams, power plants, and natural gas infrastructure. Lithuania dispatched the military to back up riot police in securing its liquefied natural gas import terminal, oil products terminal, a key power link with Poland, and the Kruonis Pumped Storage hydro plant. Latvia has increased security around all critical infrastructure facilities.A Baltic intelligence official said Russian military and domestic intelligence services are planning a foreign-flag operation against infrastructure in Russia or the Baltic states and Poland. In late June 2026, NATO received intelligence that Russia was preparing provocations against the Baltic states and Poland, and Western sources assessed that the risk increased after Ukrainian operations.Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters: “We are not naive, we see the information, we read between the lines and we are doing our homework.”On August 4, 2026, a drone carrying an explosive device was discovered at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany, close to Ukrainian cargo planes. The airport is a major logistics hub for military equipment and German freight company DHL.The German government formally concluded on September 1, 2026, that Russia was responsible for the attempted drone attack and ordered a series of measures in response. German investigators identified two men with ties to Russia as suspects in the plot.Ukrainian OSCE representative Yuriy Vitrenko stated that the Leipzig/Halle attack is part of a broader Moscow hybrid campaign across Europe — from sabotage and recruitment of intermediaries to GPS interference, cyberattacks, threats to underwater infrastructure, and repeated violations of NATO airspace.Belgian Interior Minister Bernard Quintin labelled the Leipzig drone incident a “full-blown Russian attack” rather than a hybrid threat, stating that findings from Belgian services and partners point to Russian involvement in planning and execution.On September 15, 2026, jets deployed to the NATO air defense mission shot down what is alleged to have been a Russian drone violating Lithuanian airspace.On July 30, 2026, a missile — which Polish authorities believe was most likely a Russian Kh-101 — exploded near Tarnawa-Kolonia in the Lublin Voivodeship.On August 16, a Spanish F/A-18 deployed in the NATO air policing mission shot down a drone that illegally entered Romanian airspace.On September 8, Moldovan authorities reported two Russian drones violating the country’s airspace, one of which crashed in Moldova while the other continued toward Romania.In August 2026, attack drones were found hidden at an airport in Germany that serves as a transit hub for NATO.Russia has been using a facility in Kaliningrad to direct Ukrainian drones toward the Baltic states and Finland by jamming the drones’ signals and spoofing them with false navigation data.Lithuania’s Communications Regulatory Authority reported that Russia has increased its GPS jamming capability from 3 stations in early 2025 to 36 stations, with the radius of false GPS signals reaching 450 kilometers from Kaliningrad.GPS interference across the Baltic Sea region is eroding satellite navigation reliability, forcing aviation and defense sectors to prepare for unreliable satellite navigation.
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